The bloom this season lasted longer than expected and the prune crop is looking good. Buds are breaking from the jackets and the trees are nice and green; you can actually see the small prunes on the tree. Weather will play a factor in the coming weeks as storms and high winds may cause many of the buds to fall off the tree. This is typical however and while most of the buds will fall, only about 10% need to stay on the tree for it to be a good crop.

Prices have firmed in the market and inquiries have increased. Small sizes continue to be in short supply and many suppliers are not taking new orders for small prunes.

We will have another crop update in May before the official crop report by The National Agricultural Statistics Service (NASS) which is released in June. Please feel free to contact us with any questions.

California Almond Crop Report / Market Update

In March the industry shipped over 172 million pounds of almonds, 42 million more pounds than March of 2011.  Most of this increase is due to the huge growth of export sales (export shipments in March were up 37 Million pounds over last year). We will see how this news affects the market but experts believe that prices may increase.

The good news is that buyers can be relieved that bloom conditions for the 2012 crop have in general been very good. Warm and sunny weather in the second half of February coincided with good softshell bloom overlap and ample opportunity for pollination. There were a couple cold fronts in March but not enough to cause alarm.

Barring a freeze which becomes less likely as the weeks advance, California should have a decent 2012 crop. Crop size arguments will abound. The top side parameters are bearing acres at about 770 thousand and average yield at 2650 lbs. per acre (the record yield seen in 2011). This calculates out to just over 2 billion pounds. Not many can see much more.

Source: www.skamberg.com

California Pistachios – Market Update

The inshell pistachio market rebounded in the past month. From a sluggish and weak market a month ago to firming prices and good demand at present. Increased shipments to both the domestic and export markets have given strength to the inshell market. Kernel shipments continue at an impressive pace. Total kernel shipments thru February were up 48% over last year.

Demand growth is very strong in the domestic market, as pistachio kernels continue to grow in popularity as a both a snack and ingredient item. In contrast to firming inshell prices, kernel prices have been softer over the past month. Experts anticipate the strength in the inshell market will translate to the kernel market in the near future.

Many growers are expecting up to a 600-million pound crop this year. That compares to the 448-million pound crop in 2011, an off year, and the record 528 million pounds two years ago. In anticipation of a record breaking crop year, a number of processors are adding harvest processing capacity. Growers have been nervous about harvest bottlenecks for the past 2 years, and the added capacity should alleviate some or all of their concern. The added capacity will generally improve the quality as well; more capacity means a shorter harvest and less waiting at the hulling facility, both of which enhance quality.

On the farming side, this spring will be another strong planting season, with more than 10,000 new acres planted. Over the past 8 years, California growers have planted more than 110,000 acres, roughly doubling the acres devoted to pistachio. In addition to the expanding of plants and planting of orchards, the California plants are running at high capacity. This bodes well for shipment numbers over the next several months.

Source: Nichols Farms, www.skamberg.com

Pecans – Market Update

In March the USDA NASS released the long awaited 2011 preliminary crop summary. Their estimate of the 2011 Pecan crop was revised upwards from 251.7 million pounds (inshell basis) to 271.4 million pounds.  Normally this type of an increase would lead to a weakening in the market, however, based on higher than anticipated shipments out of Georgia in the months of December and January; many within the industry had already assumed a crop of approximately 270 to 285 million pounds.  As such, market prices have already adjusted to reflect the anticipated increase.

The revised crop figures are good news for the industry. This was supposed to be the on-year crop; however, the severe drought in the Southwest greatly reduced what should have been a very good year. As it will be several months before the true extent of the damage is known, any additional carryout can only help to stabilize prices this fall. Further, a good South African crop, the harvest of which should start sometime in the next thirty days, could also help the market by redirecting some of the early Chinese purchases thereby relieving some of the pressure normally exerted on opening market prices.

As for the market, contracting went very well with most buyers being able to contract their annual needs at or below 2011 levels.  Demand continues to be good with exports to China already approaching 2010 crop year levels (China imported approximately 44 million pounds, inshell basis, between August 1, 2010 and July 31, 2011).

Source: Nature’s Finest Foods, Ltd.

California Raisins – Market Update

In March, Monte Schutz, president of Raisin Bargaining Association (RBA), told members that a high demand for juice concentrate could send 2012 Thompson green prices up to $300 per ton.

$300 compares to a record $265 average per ton paid for last year’s raisin-type grapes. This green ton price netted another record, $1,700 per ton for raisins. A $300 green price equates to $1,800 to $2,000 per ton for what likely will be 100 percent free tonnage raisins.

This high price is bolstered by continued strong raisin sales to consumers, up 3 percent so far over last year. Shultz believes that this past year’s crop will come in at 315,000 to 320,000 tons of raisins, not far off from the 325,000 tons that were sold last year.

Shultz went on to say that he also expect prices to be substantially higher this year compared to last year.

Last year was unprecedented. Before the harvest, Thompson green prices were quoted at $250 per ton, and the RBA was in the second year of a $1,500 per ton two-year raisin contract with its signatory packers.

Wineries raised the ante to $265 or even higher in some cases with early reports of a short crop, trying to convince growers to sell green rather than dry Thompsons into raisins.

The raisin industry fought back with a first-ever reopening of negotiations between packers and growers to raise an already established $1,500 per ton contract price to $1,700 per ton.

It will be interesting to see how things play out this coming fall. We will update our reports with new information as it becomes available.

Source: Western Farm Press

California almond shippers made up for what those in California perceived as a slightly disappointing December by shipping 153.7 million pounds in January. This is 28.3% more than last January’s total of 119.8 million. Shipments for the season are now up by 11.0% versus last year.

Of mention is shipments to all European destinations (up nearly 6 million pounds), but the lead story is China, 25.4 million pounds (plus another 1.5 million if you include Vietnamese shipments). This compares to 3.9 million pounds in January a year ago. The Chinese total for the season is now at 166.8 million pounds, more than double the totals sent to the next most popular export destinations (Spain at 78.5 million and India at 74.3 million). Shipments to India in January were down by 1.2 million pounds (12%) in January.

Commitments are strong at 440.8 million pounds, nearly 100 million pounds more than a year ago. Notably, the commitments plus shipments today account for about 69% for the total supply out of California, this compares to 66% at the same time a year ago a very comfortable position for California sellers.

The 2012 California almond bloom is well underway with some of the best weather conditions in many years.  The bloom overlap of almond varieties is excellent. The Sacramento and Southern San Joaquin Valley are several days ahead of the Central and Northern San Joaquin Valley.  Bloom started off very quickly and then seemed to extend a little longer than initially expected.  Warm weather during the day and night this past week, is forecasted to transition to cooler temperatures with a chance of light rainfall this coming week.  Thus, the peak bloom north and south will have experienced different pollination weather than the middle of the state.  Industry experts believe it will be tough to match last year’s record crop even with the much better pollinating conditions due to tired trees.

Source: www.projectapism.org (Dan Cummings), www.skamberg.com

California Pistachios

Last month we looked at shipments to export markets, which until December had been driving record shipment numbers. December, 2011 exports were well behind year earlier numbers. Exports of open inshell pistachios rebounded in January, and are now slightly ahead of last year. Domestic open inshell shipments remain at record levels after a strong shipping month in January.

Prospects for the 2012 crop are strong. Chilling hours throughout the California production area are greater than required for good dormancy. Given the large acreage of young orchards (which generally require more chilling than older trees) prospects for a record 2012 crop are good. Rainfall has been much lower than normal this winter, but most reservoirs are near or above average levels after two very wet years, thus water availability should not be a limiting factor to the 2012 crop.

With the prospect of a large 2012 crop, carryout from the 2011/12 marketing year becomes an important issue.  Open inshell shipments are up 11% this marketing year versus the 2010/11 marketing year; it is reasonable to expect a similar increase for the balance of the year. Thus it is likely the open inshell carryout will be 65 to 70 million pounds. Historically, this is a large carryout, but less than was carried into the 2011 crop (79 million pounds).

Supply is only part of the equation; demand will determine if a large carryover and record crop is an adequate supply or over supply. Supplier’s ability to promote, competing nut prices, exchange rates, and sluggish European buying all factor into demand, as well as price adjustments over the remainder of this marketing year and into the 2012/13 marketing year.

Source: Nichols Farms, www.skamberg.com

Pecan Market Update

Last week the National Pecan Sheller’s Association released their best guestimate of the 2011 Pecan crop estimating the crop to be 280.5 million pounds (inshell basis). That figure is slightly higher than the October USDA estimate of 251.7 million pounds but is within reason considering that Georgia appears to have produced about 20 to 30 million pounds more than originally anticipated. If so, and with the larger Mexican crop, it would appear that total supply will be only slightly less than last year. Because most contracts were written at levels below those of last year, consumption should remain strong with China expected to consume about 25% more product than they did in 2011. Even so, unless the March USDA crop estimate comes out considerably smaller than expected, the industry should have enough Pecans to get well into the fall.

Source: Nature’s Finest Foods, Ltd.

Overall, the prune harvest was a success and produced clean fruit with few defects. The size of the fruit appears large to medium with very little small sized fruit.  Over the next few weeks packers will receive the rest of the crop and have a better idea on size and off grade. As these reports come in, we will post updates to the site.

Notes on Supply: California prune inventories as of July 31, 2011 were reported by handlers to be 65,009 tons. With a new crop of about 125,000 tons, the total 2011/2012 prune supply is projected at 190,000 tons, roughly a 20% decrease from last year. Check back in February as we will have more details on the crop and new prices. Feel free to contact us directly with any questions.

Almond shipments in December were reported today at 157.2 million pounds, down slightly from shipments of 160.9 million pounds in December last year. The pace is slower than had been seen in the previous three months when shipments were strongly higher than the year before. Total shipments for the year are now 867.6 million pounds, up 8.4% versus a year ago.
On the supply side, the crop looks increasing likely to end near the NASS forecast of 1950 million pounds. Last month, hullers delivered another 315.1 million pounds to processors, bringing in a total of 1757.3 million pounds by the end of the year. Of this total, 684.8 million pounds were reported as Nonpareil (forecast at 750 million pounds). Last year at this time total receipts stood at 1424.5 million pounds, 204 million pounds away from the final tally. Adding another 200 million pounds would bring this season to the NASS figure.

Although not a record, the December shipment is still a strong showing. Almonds continue to remain a relative bargain compared to other tree nuts. Chinese and Indian demand, key to consumption, appears to still be robust at these price levels. Bloom is coming in another month and sellers will likely not be in a hurry.

Source: www.skamberg.com

California Pistachios

Harvest of the 2011 California pistachio crop is complete. It is expected that the final crop will be very close to the 447.8 million pounds received through the end of November. Open inshell was about 5% higher and closed shell about 5% less in the 2011 crop versus the 2010 crop. Insect damage was low, but slightly higher than the very clean 2010 crop. Stain levels in the 2011 crop were significantly higher than the 2010 crop, due to alternating hot spells and rain during harvest.

The crop size is a bit larger than most processors expected, but within the range of expectations. It certainly was not the surprise last year’s exceptionally large crop provided. The 2011 crop was 16% less than the 2010 crop and the total supply for the 2011/12 marketing year is 4% greater (due to larger carryin), but at the end of October, the total supply is 4% less than same period last year due to strong shipments over the first 2 months of the current marketing year.

Carry-in open inshell to this crop was 79 million pounds, and a desirable level at the end of this year is about 50 million pounds. It will take only modest increases over last year’s shipments from this point forward to reach 50 million pounds of carryout.

For the first two months of the marketing year, shipments to Western Europe are down 33% from 18.5 million pounds to 12.2 million pounds. Many believe that the Western Europe demand will be less than last year, but doubt shipments for the entire year will be down by a third.

On the other hand, US pistachio shipments to Asia, primarily China and Hong Kong, are up 145% from 12.1 million pounds last year to 29.6 million pounds this year. The increased shipments to Asia give credence to reports of a small Iranian crop. Don’t expect a 145% increase for the balance of the year, but experts agree that shipments to China/HK will continue to be strong, and greater than last year. Other export markets expected to show substantial increases are South Korea, due to the recently signed free trade agreement, and Mexico, where the 20% duty on US pistachios was eliminated. Other strong export markets include Canada and Australia due to strong currencies relative to the USD.

Domestic demand has been good. Expect increases over last year due to slightly lower prices, strong industry promotion, high prices of competing nuts, and the pistachio health message gaining traction. In total, expect shipments from this point forward to be above last year, with carryout to next year close to desirable levels.

Current prices for raw US extra #1 inshell pistachios have been steady in the $3.70 to $3.80 range. Kernel prices, depending upon quality are in the $6.50 to $7.00 range.

Source: Nichols Farms

Pecan Market Update

Two significant announcements came out of the USDA last month that will have a substantial impact of the Pecan industry.

First, after receiving numerous negative comments from throughout the nut industry, the USDA National Ag Statistics Service (NASS) has reversed their decision to cease publishing the October and January crop production reports. Based on their December 8, 2011 announcement, NASS has agreed to reinstate the October and January crop production reports. The only report that will be eliminated will be the December report as there are rarely any significant changes between the October and December figures. As the Pecan industry has no other method to determine production, this is very good news.

Second, data analyzed by Nature’s Finest Foods indicated that there were significant errors in the Foreign Ag Statistics Service (FAS) 2011 import and export figures (FAS 2011 figures are for the 2010 crop year). Nature’s Finest Foods contacted the responsible individuals at FAS to discuss the findings. After a thorough examination of the submitted documents by Nature’s Finest Foods, the FAS determined that there were significant errors in their data. As such, they have agreed to issue revised import and export figures for the 2010 crop year as soon as possible.

Source: Nature’s Finest Foods, Ltd.

California Prunes (Dried Plums)

Harvest has ended and growers and packers are in the process of grading and sorting the fruit. Due to the late harvest, the size of the crop is still uncertain but most in the industry feel that it will be right around the original state estimate of 122K tons.

Early indications are that the fruit is on the larger size which may limit the availability of smaller sized fruit (60/70 count and smaller). Check out our upcoming newsletters for information on new pricing and crop information.

California Almonds

Almond Growers Bring in
Another Record Shattering Crop

California almond grower’s produced a crop this year that will shatter all previous records, possibly by as much as 300 million pounds.

After surpassing the billion-pound mark for the first time ever just eight years ago, the state growers are forecasting a harvest of a little less than 2 billion pounds of almonds this year. But no one seems concerned about finding markets for the sixth record-breaking crop in the last 10 years.

“Sure we can sell it; the demand for almonds is so good. I don’t know if we’ll reach the 1.95 billion pounds estimated, but it’s bigger than any crop to date. The record was 1.65 billion pounds in 2008, and we had 1.62 billion pounds last year. This one is definitely much bigger; this is 300 million pounds more than the crop of 2008,” said Scott Phippen, who grows, handles, packs and ships almonds in the Mateca area of San Joaquin County.

California produces roughly 80 percent of the world’s almonds and demand for almonds as a healthy food continue to increase worldwide.

“The global economy is a huge part of our business. We export more than half of our crop. Right now the market is very stable. The handlers are booked through the end of November, so there are fewer offers being made. It will keep prices strong at least until the 1^st of December and maybe longer,” Phippen said.

The Almond Board of California has identified China and India as the two top priority development markets. China has already passed Germany as the No. 1 export market for California almonds, while India has made its way into the top 5.

Almond exports to China and India increased 25 percent last year and both Almond Board and USDA economists say they expect almond shipments to China and other emerging economies to enjoy sustained, strong growth in the years ahead.

Source: California Farm Bureau Federation

Walnuts

Walnut Growers Bring in Another High Quality, Bumper Crop

At an estimated 485,000 tons of walnuts, growers are bringing in a bumper crop this year – only about 4% smaller than last year’s huge 503,000 ton crop.

Dennis Balint, chief executive officer of the California Walnut Commission and executive director of California Walnut Board, said the size of the nuts and the quality of the nuts are outstanding, so he expects prices to remain high this year.

“Demand is strong, and I think prices will remain very good,” he said.

Michael Andersen, a partner in Andersen and Sons Ranch said, “Walnut Prices are through the roof. Growers are going to do very well.”

Sales have continued to rise even in a down economy, and that is encouraging for growers.

“The biggest driver is the export side. The Chinese and the Turks have really pushed the expansion of walnuts,” Andersen said.

Source: California Farm Bureau Federation

Pistachios

2011 Pistachio Crop Expected to be the 2^nd Largest in US History

As the two-month-long pistachio harvest winds down, growers are sporting smiles similar to the ones on their unique and popular green-hued nut.

Handlers and pistachio-business leaders report the second largest crop in the history of U.S. pistachio cultivation—in an “off” year for the alternate-bearing trees. In addition, prices and markets remain strong.

Richard Matoian, executive director of American Pistachio Growers, said early crop estimates ranged from 400 million to 450 million pounds, but deliveries as of mid-October totaled 446 million pounds, with another 10 million to 20 million pounds expected by the end of harvest.

“It was a bit of a surprise to top the 450 million-pound mark,” Matoian said. “But with the demand for pistachios, we see that as a positive.”

Last year’s record crop of pistachios totaled 528 million pounds, a significant jump from the 2009 total of 354 million pounds.

“Last year’s crop was the best ever, but this is another exceptional year,” reported Jeff Gibbons, plant manager for Setton Pistachio of Terra Bella. Even with additional acreage coming into production every year, this year’s crop size and quality were exceptional, Gibbons added.

Although the 2011 pistachio crop is smaller in size, it had a lower percentage of nuts that did not open naturally. Growers watch the split percentages carefully, because unopened nuts bring a lower return. According to Gibbons, a number of factors, including weather, determine if a pistachio nut shell will naturally split open during the ripening process. This year, 19 percent of the crop had closed shells, compared to last year’s 23.5 percent.

Andy Anzaldo of Paramount Farms said a consistent attribute of this year’s crop is size. This year’s pistachios will be the largest ever—very favorable from a marketing standpoint, he said. California grows 98 percent of the U.S. pistachio crop, with Arizona and New Mexico supplying the remaining 2 percent. Matoian said he sees the potential for more growth in Arizona due to lower land costs. Processors are already looking ahead and planning expansions to handle the larger crops. The seven large processors who handle 95 percent of the crop in California are all planning to increase capacity to meet demand, Matoian confirmed.

Source: California Farm Bureau Federation

The region’s major wineries bumped their July per-ton price $15 to $265. Wineries generally have paid $155 to $210 a ton in the past several years. Raisin packers, responding to growing consumer demand, have upped the ante this year with the highest price ever paid for Thompsons (a minimum of $1700/ton, up from $1500/ton in 2010).

The two sides of the market have caused demand for Thompson grapes to nearly double from 273.000 tons in 2010, to an estimated 450,000 to 500,000 tons in 2011. This leaves Thompson seedless growers in the enviable position of having to decide whether to sell their grapes as raisins or grapes for crush. It takes about four and a half tons of fresh grapes to make a ton of raisins.

Growers of Thompson seedless grapes have three options for their crop each year: table grapes, raisins or grapes to be crushed for wineries. The decision to grow table grapes must be made very early in the production cycle because it involves a different way of pruning the vines. As far as drying for raisins or going green to the crush, that decision can be made right up to the point where harvest begins.

There were many reasons for raisin growers to shift gears and send more grapes to wineries this season. Some had trouble finding enough workers to pick their raisin grapes and many growers could only find half the workers needed. On average, raisin farmers paid more than 30 cents per tray, 3 to 4 cents more than in 2010. Still others missed the Sept. 20 deadline to qualify for insurance, partially because of the shortage of workers. These growers didn’t want to risk being rained on and sent the grapes to the wineries.

Last year, 275,000 tons of raisin-type grapes were crushed and sent to wineries. This year speculation is that it will be over 400,000 tons crushed, with many experts thinking it will be closer to half a million. With fewer grapes available for raisin production, expect prices to increase in the coming months.

A Late Harvest Causes Weather Concerns for Growers

In a typical year, raisin growers have picked and rolled their raisins by the end of August, early September. Due to an unseasonably cool spring and summer, the raisin crop is approximately 2-3 weeks late this season leaving it susceptible to October rains and weather damage.

Fears of rain were realized last week when a storm dumped more than an inch of rain on parts of California’s agricultural heartland in less than five hours, flooding streets, uprooting trees and soaking a crop of raisins drying in vineyards.

“Overall, we think 40 to 50 percent of the raisin crop has been exposed,” said a member of the Fresno Cooperative Raisin Growers. “If we get a little bit of wind and sun, it could help. But with the rain comes mold, so it all depends on what stage of drying they are in.”

While it is still too early to tell how the rains have affected the crops, many growers feel they weathered last week’s storm fairly well. However the real concern is that rains and cool weather will not let up. Not only is mold a potential problem, but the rain can cause dirt and sand to splash onto the trays. If the sand becomes embedded, the raisins must be washed adding an additional cost to growers.

The Raisin Administrative Committee is scheduled to meet this week and they are expected to issue their first crop estimate for this year. We will update this posting with more info when the estimate is released.

California produces 360,000 tons of raisins annually, or about 40 percent of the world total. The vast majority of California raisins are consumed in the United States, with nearly 170,000 tons in 2009-10. The United States is followed by the United Kingdom, Japan, Germany, China and Canada. According to the U.S. Department of Agriculture Foreign Agricultural Service, global raisin consumption is forecast to expand 4 percent to 1.1 million metric tons in 2011-12, driven mainly by China’s rebounding domestic supplies.

Sources: www.westernfarmpress.com, www.abclocal.go.com/kfsn, www.agalert.com

Harvest is in full swing, and many growers were scrambling last week to get nuts off trees and off the ground before the rains hit. Statewide the prediction is for a record crop pushing 2 billion meat pounds.

The predicted record breaking 2011 almond harvest going strong, with most of the non-parailes already harvested in farms throughout the Central Valley. Reports in August showed that harvest operations were off to a slow start in the central and eastern regions, with many growers not starting operations until late August. The harvest season will last until late October or early November, depending on when and how much wet weather comes to the Valley.

Early this spring almond growers faced chilly, wet weather and a shortage of honey bees for pollination. Despite the challenges, the cold weather actually lengthened the bloom, bees managed to pollinate and weather damage to the almond trees was minimal. In May the USDA predicted an already impressive 1.75 billion pound crop, but in the following two months that number ballooned 11 percent. In July the United States Department of Agriculture predicted an all-time record crop of 1.95 billion meat pounds, coming from 750,000 California almond bearing acres.  This will account for nearly 80 percent of the world’s entire almond supply. The average nut set per tree this year is 7,353, up 23 percent from 2010.

With the crop coming in fast and being of such high quality, many agree that the crop estimate will be hit this year. What will that mean for prices? While some experts were concerned with a price drop due to the record prediction, Almond prices have not seen any significant changes. For nonpareil, the most popular variety, prices were about $2.30 a pound in 2009, then down to $2.15-$2.20 last year. Growers might see a slight drop this year, but that’s still a guess. Even if the price drops slightly, it should not be a problem as there are more nuts to sell and worldwide demand remains strong.

Source: www.turlockjournal.com, www.chicoer.com

Walnuts

Tagline: 2011 Crop expected to be second largest on record at 485K short tons. With prices running higher than last year, 2011 could set a new record for dollar value.

The USDA NASS California Field Office released the annual crop estimate for walnuts, predicting the annual walnut yield to be 485,000 short tons. Slightly lower than last year’s record breaking crop of 503,000 short tons, the 2011 estimate suggests the second largest crop on record and will be confirmed in February 2012. If the estimate proves true, 2011 could set a new record for dollar value, with walnut prices already running well ahead of last year.

Worldwide demand is very strong with virtually no walnuts currently available and the fall harvest getting a late start. Last month, The California Independent Handlers Coalition set opening season benchmark prices for in-shell walnuts at 40 cents a pound higher than last year’s opening price, and shelled meats were up 90 cents a pound higher. In the last few weeks, reports came in of traders contracting for in-shell walnuts at prices 5 to 10 cents a pound above those opening prices and estimated 20 percent of the crop was already committed.

According to California Walnut Commission Chairperson Charles Crain, “We are delighted not only with the crop size but also with the high quality kernels we are expecting thanks to the mild spring and summer weather. This excellent crop will help us continue to meet the growing consumer demand for nutritious walnuts both domestically and around the world.”

California walnuts account for 99% of the commercial U.S. supply and 78% of world supply. In the past year, approximately 40% of available product was shipped domestically and 60% was shipped to export markets, making California walnuts the fifth largest California export. Since 2002, domestic shipments have increased 24%.

Source: www.recordnet.com, www.walnuts.org

Pistachios

Harvest of the 2011 California pistachio crop is now in full swing, with about 1/2 of the crop having been harvested.  Opinions as to the crop size vary considerably between packers, ranging from 400 million pounds to 450 million pounds.

In general, this is not a real pretty crop. Closed shell, while lower than last year, is still higher than previous crops. Pistachios on the tree have matured quickly due to above average temperatures; the effect has been increasing stain levels. Insect damage is variable, but significantly higher than the 2010 crop. The fear of a bad insect year has not materialized, but a large portion of the crop is still in the field.

Thus, despite the expectation of a larger total crop, the salable open inshell should be very close to last year’s supply. What remains to be seen are the effects of ever increasing Chinese demand, the recent strength of the US dollar, and an expected smaller Iranian crop.  The first receipts report for the 2011 crop will be released on October 15th, and we’ll know more then.

Source: www.nicholsfarms.com

New crop appears to be sizing out nicely, creating some concerns about availability of small fruit. Carry-in as reported by handlers is reported as 65,000 tons, down 20,000 tons from carry-in last year. The reduction in the carry-in is focused on the smaller sizes.

Total starting inventory based on the larger crop estimate will be 200,000 tons vs starting inventory of 214,000 tons last year. However, starting inventory based on the shorter estimate would mean supply could be as low as 187,000 tons.

Increasing demand combined with a USDA bid means that industry shipments should increase to between 140,000 and 150,000 tons. With the industry’s increasing need to carry out significant volumes at the end of the marketing year to prevent out of stocks at retail, it is apparent that there will be some pressure on fruit supply at the end of this marketing year, especially on smaller fruit and intermediate pitting sizes.

France, the other Northern Hemisphere supplier, will have a crop of around 30,000 tons, part of which is the result of a field grading program to prevent the delivery of small fruit. South American suppliers both in Chile and Argentina have reportedly depleted small and intermediate pitting size inventories through new crop.

The Texas Pecan Growers Association has released their estimate for the 2011/12 pecan crop at 256.7 million inshell pounds.

In early July, U.S.D.A. released their final figure for the 2010/11 pecan crop at 293.7 million inshell pounds. The 2010/11 crop was a much larger than normal for an off-year cycle which has allowed the potential for the upcoming on-year cycle to produce a mediocre on-year.

If the early estimates come to fruition, this will be the first year since the early 1980s that the on-year cycle was less than the off-year and will create a flip in crop cycles. The low estimates we are seeing for the 2011/12 crop are based on two years of equal production. Many feel the trees have expended too much energy to produce a good on-year crop, especially with extreme drought conditions throughout most of the major producing areas

China is expected to continue to be a strong force during the harvest season along with the normal holiday demand for first available inshell from gift packers and commercial shellers who will be buying, shelling and shipping to service fourth quarter half demand. Expect prices to remain high.

Below is a recap of the crop estimates released so far:

• Tri State ArkLaMiss Pecan Growers Assn: 246.5 million inshell pounds.
• Texas Pecan Growers Association: 256.7 million inshell pounds

The next estimates due out are in September from the National Pecan Shellers, and then in October by the USDA.

Source: youngpecan.com

California Almonds

Almond harvest has arrived, as trees are being shaken and windrowed. Nonpareils are coming off the trees well. However, plenty of blocks still aren’t ready in the upper San Joaquin Valley and into the Sacramento Valley, based on this week’s reports. Huller and sheller houses are seeing harvest slowly trickle in for processing.

Once the almonds are shaken from the trees they must sit on the ground for another five to ten days to dry before the farmers can come back through the orchards to pick them up and send them off for processing.

The current forecast calls for nearly 2 billion pounds of almonds to be sent to market a 17 percent increase from last year. This large crop is needed to fulfill an increasing worldwide demand for almonds. In fact, up to 80 percent of the state’s almond crop is shipped out of the country. The almond harvest is going to continue for several weeks due to the many different varieties of almonds grown in California.  Some of them still have a couple weeks before they are ready for harvest.

Sources: khsltv.com, agfax.com

Walnuts

After struggling earlier in the year to stay ahead of constantly changing weather conditions and to complete their fieldwork in-between rains, walnut growers are finding the going much easier as the season winds down.

“This is one of the best walnut crops I’ve seen,” says Rick Buchner, University of California Cooperative Extension orchard farm advisor for the county. Despite the variable spring, the trees hit a wide enough window of favorable conditions to set the nuts, he thinks.

Whatever the explanation, growers are now seeing what appears to be a good size, clean crop of decent quality, and prices remain strong. Among their best-performing varieties this season have been Chandler, Tulare and Howard.

Source: westernfarmpress.com

Pistachios

As has been widely reported, the harvest will be late again this year. Experts expect some growers to start as early as September 6th to 10th, with most starting the week of September 12th. The peak should be the week of September 19th or 26th. We are seeing a number of mature nuts on the trees this week. Nut size is large and similar to last year.

It is an interesting time of the year in the pistachio industry. Growers speculate endlessly about yields and the beginning of harvest. Packers speculate endlessly about yields and pricing. It is a difficult situation when buyers want reliable crop size information, and it isn’t there to provide.

Last year at this time, the crop size was variously estimated at 325 million to 375 million pounds, when in fact it was 530 million pounds. This year, the crop size is estimated at 400 to 450 million pounds, but most growers believe it is smaller than last year. If it sounds like a paradox, it is. The result is that most business has been put on hold until a better read of the 2011 crop can be made.

Source: nicholsfarms.com

A full report on the harvest and the 2011 crop will be posted in the next newsletter. Check out some shots of the harvest below.

Fruit looks good – It’s shaking time!

The plums are shaken from the trees and put in picking bins.

The fruit is then taken to our dehydration plant in Gridley, CA.

The fresh prunes are washed…

…and then spread out on trays.

A lot of trays.

We then place them into the dryer (large convection oven) for about 20 hours.

When all is said and done, we have taken fresh plums and made delicious Stapleton’s California Prunes.